Multiple reports have indicated that President Donald Trump is poised to announce his Vice-Presidential candidate on Monday at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, WI. Four prominent Republicans purportedly on Trump’s short-list have risen to the top of
contention in the estimations of most outlets. Namely they are (in order) Sen. J.D. Vance, Ohio, Sen. Marco Rubio, Fla., Former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sen. Tim Scott, S.C. The four have reportedly been under vetting with formal inquiries from the Trump campaign reported in early June by several outlets. Another possible ‘dark horse’ in contention despite reports to the contrary from Bloomberg could be biotech entrepreneur, former presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy.
According to Forbes, Trump was allegedly holding his decision off while the news cycle has been dominated by reactions to incumbent President Joe Biden’s abysmal debate performance. Trump told Fox News on Monday that he is likely to announce his running mate at the RNC though noting he hadn’t finalized his choice at that point. The timing would make him the first non-incumbent GOP nominee to announce his VP at the convention since President George H.W. Bush in 1988 waited until the convention to announce Dan Quayle as his running mate reported the American Presidency Project at the University of California Santa Barbara.
Each candidate has their own unique benefits and detractors, but some of the downsides are shared.
The Senators
Three U.S. Senators are reportedly under consideration by former President Trump. However, their prospects may dim with GOP leaders advising him it might be unwise to create a vacancy in the ranks of the Senate GOP with the party is so close to reacquiring a one seat majority in the upper chamber, with RealClearPolitics projecting (with no toss-ups) likely gains in Wyoming and Montana.
A vacancy and GOP special election loss could snatch defeat from the jaws of victory akin to former Sen. Kelly Loeffler’s catastrophic loss of Georgia’s 2021 runoff to Democrat Sen. Raphael Warnock. Loeffler’s loss handed the chamber back to Democrats and made Senator Chuck Schumer of New York Senate Majority Leader at the worst possible time, eroding GOP efforts to restrain the Biden presidency. Trump learned the hard way in 2018 that without his party leading Congress his ability to enact his platform will disintegrate.
According to the 2022 Cook Political PVI or Partisan Voter Index, all three Senators represent states that only run pro-Republican in single digits with Scott’s South Carolina the least vulnerable at R+8, followed by Vance in Ohio at R+6 and the most vulnerable Rubio in Florida at R+3.
In Florida’s current Senate race for Sen. Rick Scott’s seat the race is already too close for comfort with Democrat former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell less than six points behind according to the RCP polling average.
The strategic setback of possibly destabilizing the GOP in the Senate could place Gov. Burgum and Ramaswamy in much better positions to become Trump’s running-mate.
Sen. J.D. Vance, Ohio: J.D. Vance presents a political conundrum for many Trump supporters. His greatest shortfall could be that he was a loud and prominent Anti-Trump voice in 2016, known for his memoir, “Hillbilly Elegy,” only to make a dramatic about-face to become one of the President’s most ardent supporters in Washington. But Trump, and MAGA Republicans have a long memory.
As a pro, Vance is only 39-years old, making him an attractive choice for many concerned about the 78-year-old Trump and his opponent the 81-year old Joe Biden representing a gerontocracy. He is also well known and favored in the conservative media circuit and has demonstrated a keen talent in front of the camera, making him a powerful potential right-hand for Trump. The Business Insider and other outlets have begun to rate Sen. Vance as Trump’s most likely choice to be his running mate.
Sen. Marco Rubio, Fla.: Getting the most obvious problems out of the way: Marco Rubio is from Florida. This represents a problem under the 12th Amendment which requires “President and Vice-President, one of whom, at least, shall not be an inhabitant of the same state with themselves.” Rubio would have to resign from office and move out of state in short-order before he could be legally inaugurated. There is precedent for this from Vice President Dick Cheney who moved from Texas back to his native Wyoming to serve under President George W. Bush, so it’s not unheard of. The second issue may seem funny but is quite seriously: “Little Marco.” Simply put, despite his marginally acceptable Senate performance and even recent appearances beside Trump at rallies like Tuesday’s at Doral, FL, the name stuck.
On the practical upshot however, Rubio presents the unique prospect of enhancing Trump’s attraction for Latino voters, potentially locking in the Cuban-American vote. and the ability to present his scathingly anti-communist oratory in fluent Spanish, a benefit that’s impossible to ignore.
Former North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum: Gov. Burgum like Trump is a wealthy man having made his fortune in the tech industry. However, his greatest detractor is his lack of name recognition outside of industry circles and his home state. ‘Doug, who?’ could potentially be the question that clouds his viability as a Vice Presidential prospect, just as it plagued his own presidential aspirations. Burgum, while attractive to Pro-Life Republicans could find his staunch stance on abortion a problem as Trump has sought to walk a fine line on the explosive political third-rail. He also struggled as a fundraiser, failing to make the cut for the third primary debate as reported by ABC News.
Gov. Burgum’s business acumen is unquestionable, having sold his successful tech startup firm to Microsoft in 2001 for over $1 Billion. And he could find a kindred spirit in Trump considering he launched a successful bid for office and won as a political outsider.
Sen. Tim Scott, S.C.: Tim Scott, by most rankings an above-average Republican Senator, is well known by many in the Trump campaign and has served as an aggressive campaign ally since dropping his own presidential run last year. Trump has been fulsome with praise for Sen. Scott saying in February, “A lot of people are talking about that gentleman right over there.” Motioning to Scott he added, “He’s been such a great advocate. I have to say this in a very positive way, Tim Scott, he has been much better for me than he was for himself. I watched his campaign, and he doesn’t like talking about himself. But boy does he talk about Trump. … I called him and I said, ‘Tim, you’re better for me than you were for yourself.’” Scott is also well known for bringing a preacher’s touch to the podium and is widely regarded as a powerful orator. With the Associated Press noting he “often quotes Scripture in political speeches that often reach a crescendo of call-and-response.”
Notably, as a positive one can’t really call upon Scott’s appeal to the Black voter, as Politico observed Scott has regularly suffered defeat in most of South Carolina’s nine majority Black counties. Per the AP Trump also questioned Scott’s potential debate performance against Vice President Kamala Harris.
Vivek Ramaswamy: Ramaswamy, 38, rocketed from a following on X of approximately 40k at the beginning of his 2024 presidential run to over 2.2 million as of this report. The former GOP primary candidate who dropped out and endorsed President Trump has long been one of his most ardent defenders and was among the earliest candidates to speak out against the Mar-a-Lago FBI raid within hours of the event with a vow to pardon Trump if he was elected. As recently as March in a GOP primary poll from HarrisX omitting President Trump, Ramaswamy polled third behind Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Haley at 12%.
On the negative side reporting from Bloomberg citing “people familiar with the matter” has claimed that Trump has ruled out Ramaswamy as Vice President, instead preferring him for a Cabinet role, potentially Homeland Security secretary. In May, author Ann Coulter suggested that she wouldn’t vote for Ramaswamy because he is “Indian,” echoing a concern many have expressed that the American people would find voting for a “Trump-Ramaswamy 2024” ticket awkward. Ramaswamy himself posted to X that he respected Coulter’s forthrightness saying, “Ann Coulter told me flat-out to my face that she couldn't vote for me 'because you're an Indian,' even though she agreed with me more than most other candidates. I disagree with her but respect she had the guts to speak her mind.” Some however have countered that in 2024 America, Ramaswamy’s popularity speaks against this issue, while others have suggested simply that “Trump-Vivek 24’” might look better on a banner.
What the Polls Say:
A NewsNation/DecisionDesk HQ poll released Monday suggested a plurality of support for former S.C. Governor Nikki Haley with 16.11% support, although she is likely not in the running with Trump publicly ruling her out in May. Rubio polled at 12.22% of the total vote, and Sen. Tim Scott received support from 9.04% of those polled with Ramaswamy garnering a respectable 8.27%. Sen. Vance stood at 4.62%, while former Housing Secretary Dr. Ben Carson polled at 3.97% and Gov. Burgum trailed the pack at 3.02% The poll surveyed 1,000 voters from both parties as well as independents.
Who is your top choice to be Donald Trump’s running mate? Please let us know in the comments below.
Matthew Holloway is a contributor for Conservative HQ. Follow him on X for his latest stories, or email tips to Matthew@theconservativefreelancer.com.
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