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Rasmussen Poll: Republicans Maintain 5-Point Lead in Congressional Ballot

Rasmussen Reports has released their latest national telephone and online survey, which found that, if the elections for Congress were held today, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican candidate, while 42% would vote for the Democrat. Just three percent (3%) would vote for some other candidate, but another eight percent (8%) are not sure. (To see the survey wording click here.)

The GOP lead is unchanged from last week, when they led by the same 47%-42% margin. Republicans have led the Generic Congressional Ballot all year, although their lead has narrowed since mid-July.

Rasmussen Reports is updating the Generic Congressional Ballot findings weekly on Fridays at 10:30 a.m. Eastern until the midterm elections in November.

In September 2018, before voters handed Democrats their first House majority in eight years, Democrats held a four-point advantage (46% to 42%) in the generic ballot question. As the November 2018 midterms neared, the margin was a statistical dead heat – Republicans 46%, Democrats 45% – in the final poll before Democrats won a slim House majority while Republicans gained Senate seats to maintain control of that chamber.

The survey of 2,500 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 28-September 1, 2022 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/-2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

The Republican lead is mainly due to a 10-point advantage among independent voters. Eighty-five percent (85%) of Republican voters say they would vote for their own party’s congressional candidate, while 80% of Democrats would vote for the Democratic candidate. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, 43% would vote Republican and 33% would vote Democrat, while seven percent (7%) would vote for some other candidate and 17% are undecided.

Fifty-one percent (52%) of whites, 22% of black voters and 45% of other minorities would vote Republican if the election were held today. Sixty-two percent (62%) of black voters, 39% of whites and 42% of other minorities would vote Democrat.

The so-called “gender gap” has narrowed in the latest findings, with men (49%) now five points more likely than women voters (44%) to prefer Republican congressional candidates. The gap was 10 points last week.

Voters under 40 favor Democrats by a 16-point margin, 49% to 33%, but voters ages 40-64 favor Republicans 51% to 41%, and the GOP lead is 10 points – 51% to 41% – among voters 65 and older.

Retirees support Republicans over Democrats by a 13-point margin, 52% to 39%, and the GOP has a four-point lead (46%-42%) among private sector workers, while government employees slightly favor Democrats, 46%-45%.

Republicans lead by 11 points, 50%-39%, among voters with incomes between $30,000 and $50,000 a year, while Democrats have a three-point advantage among voters with annual incomes above $100,000.

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